2013-09-10

Oil Strategy for the whole Week 2013.09.10

Crude Oil October 2013
                                                             Product Calendar for Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures

Contract MonthProduct Code
First Trade
Last Trade
Settlement
First Holding
Last Holding
First Position
Last Position
First Notice
Last Notice
First Delivery
Last Delivery
OCT 2013CLV13
11/19/2007
09/20/2013
09/20/2013
-
-
09/23/2013
09/23/2013
09/24/2013
09/24/2013
10/01/2013
10/31/2013
                                                                                                  Expiry day
NEW YORK, Sept 9 (Reuters):
Buying of oil and safe-haven flows to gold dried up as President Barack Obama has met resistance in the U.S. Congress to his call for U.S. military action in Syria. Investors grew less worried about the risk of further oil supply disruption in the Middle East. Brent crude oil prices sank over 2% and U.S. crude futures settled 0.91% lower. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry suggested Damascus could avert U.S. strikes by handing over chemical weapons. Russia seized on his remarks and made a similar suggestion.
* U.S. commercial crude oil and gasoline inventories likely fell last week, while distillate stocks may have risen, an initial Reuters poll of analysts showed. Industry group American Petroleum Institute will release its weekly inventory report on Tuesday and the U.S. Energy Information Administration will issue its own stockpile data on Wednesday.

SINGAPORE, Sept 10 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures fell more than a dollar to below $109 a barrel on Tuesday as supply fears eased after Russia offered to help put Syria's chemical weapons under international control, easing fears of an imminent strike against the country.
West Texas Intermediate oil rose to more than two-year highs above $112 in late August on concerns that a possible U.S.-led military strike against Syria may disrupt supplies from the Middle East.
FUNDAMENTALS
* U.S. crude for October delivery fell as low as $108.21 a barrel in early Tuesday deals. By 0037 GMT, it was down 90 cents at $108.62.
* Brent oil dropped 88 cents to $112.84 per barrel. It fell 2.1 percent on Monday, its steepest single-day decline since June 20.
* The White House will closely examine Russia's offer to work with Syria to put its chemical weapons under international control but the U.S. Congress should still back military action to keep pressure on Damascus, a top aide said.
* U.S. President Barack Obama, who said the Russian plan could potentially be a significantly breakthrough, is slated to address the American people on Tuesday night and is due to speak to lawmakers during the day.
* The euro held firm against the U.S. dollar as risk appetite ticked up after a Russian proposal on Syria raised the chance that a U.S. military strike would be delayed or averted.
Today's DATA/EVENTS (GMT)
0530 China Industrial output
0530 China Retail sales
0530 China Urban investment                                  
0645 France Industrial output
1130 U.S. NFIB business optimism
1145 U.S. ICSC weekly chain store sales
2030 U.S. API weekly crude stocks


 Technical Outlook:
October WTI Crude Oil continues to show an extreme bullish COT profile across all COT data with the only exception being bearish levels of Commercial shorting. Extreme levels of Large Spec buying and Open Interest suggest an all in position for big players but little to none Smart money or Commercial interest 
We expect a bullish overall
direction for today. That requires the base to build on
 (106.05); targeting (108.40) then (109.85). A break
Below (106.05) Pivot area will extend losses to
 (104.60). You may try to buy from (106.25), (106.05),
 with a stop loss below (105.32).                                         
Recommend:
pivot: 106.05                                        
Entry: Long position above 106.05
Targets: 107.25, 108.40 then 109.85 in extension
Stop: below 105.32
Alternative scenario: a break below 105.32 
will put 104.60 where Re-entry Long
 if first position done it stop loss 
*********************************************
Currency Strategist/ Yehia Noo®


 

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